Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Dellien

● quote 8 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $214.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.3KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Dellien
99.4¢
YES
0.7¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$37.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSho Shimabukuro (YES)$17.7K@ 81¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.7K
6h
+$6.5K
tracked
$37.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$17.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Hugo Dellien in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sho Shimabukuro' if Sho Shimabukuro advances against Hugo Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Dellien' if Hugo Dellien advances against Sho Shimabukuro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sho Shimabukuro@ 82.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $952$4.8K · 37s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.7K
6h+$6.5K
24h+$37.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.4¢
VWAP 24h81.7¢▲ above by 17.7pp
VWAP 7d81.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$555
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$36.6K
75¢
$394
70¢
$13
65¢
$0
60¢
$49
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSho Shimabukuro (YES)$17.7K@ 80.8¢0x076d…8d4c🐋about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cSho Shimabukuro$17.7K
BUY VWAP 80.8¢·1 fill
0xe30e…6b87Sho Shimabukuro$13.1K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.