Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nadia Podoroska vs Ella Seidel

● quote 106 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $150.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $267.0KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nadia Podoroska vs Ella Seidel
99.9¢
YES
1.8¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$100.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 141 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$30.5K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$55.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNadia Podoroska (YES)$11.3K@ 98¢·swisstony

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$33.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$33.2K
6h
+$20.8K
tracked
$100.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$30.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +56.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 106 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 141 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nadia Podoroska and Ella Seidel in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nadia Podoroska' if Nadia Podoroska advances against Ella Seidel. This market will resolve to 'Ella Seidel' if Ella Seidel advances against Nadia Podoroska. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Ella Seidel@ 44.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.9pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $135.1K$2.0K · 45s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$33.2K
6h+$20.8K
24h+$20.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h63.7¢▲ above by 36.2pp
VWAP 7d63.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.9K
90¢
$9
85¢
$378
80¢
$18
75¢
$1.0K
70¢
$2.4K
65¢
$8.5K
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$3.5K
50¢
$4.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.7K
35¢
$38.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNadia Podoroska (YES)$11.3K@ 97.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNadia Podoroska (YES)$11.2K@ 97.6¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNadia Podoroska (YES)$11.2K@ 97.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyNadia Podoroska$33.8K
BUY VWAP 97.2¢·4 fills
RN1Ella Seidel$12.1K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·4 fills
0xde9f…d43cElla Seidel$10.8K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·3 fills
0xbdc3…c0eaElla Seidel$10.3K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.