San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

● quote 23 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $200.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $217.1KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
19.5¢
YES
80.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%
24h sample:60 trades$108.0K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets (NO)$8.2K@ 65¢·0x927c…6633

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.2K
6h
−$36.4K
tracked
$108.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 43

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 23 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, scheduled for August 17 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $6$24.1K · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.2K
6h$36.4K
24h$43.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h39.9¢▼ below by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d39.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$36.7K
40¢
$9.4K
35¢
$30.0K
30¢
$15.8K
25¢
$16.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
13.0¢$982.7Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$417.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
93.5¢$401.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
77.5¢$251.0Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.6¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
3.8¢$234.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
24.5¢$196.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dSan Diego Padres$13.3K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·4 fills
0x927c…6633New York Mets$13.3K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·2 fills
0x7414…72a3New York Mets$13.0K
BUY VWAP 69.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.