Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins

● quote 16 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $204.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $305.3KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
20.5¢
YES
79.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:126 trades$115.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$15.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$15.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$15.9K@ 54¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$31.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$31.4K
6h
−$18.9K
tracked
$115.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$15.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 16 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for August 17 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Minnesota Twins@ 80.0¢37m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 55.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $24.4K$101 · 12s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$31.4K
6h$18.9K
24h+$1.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h41.5¢▼ below by 21.0pp
VWAP 7d41.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$18.6K
50¢
$33.1K
45¢
$5.9K
40¢
$2.0K
35¢
$20
30¢
$53.6K
25¢
$98
20¢
← now
$72
15¢
$2.5K
10¢
$132
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$11.0K@ 55.0¢0xf958…db13🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$15.9K@ 54.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rMinnesota Twins$42.3K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·12 fills
0x076d…8d4cAtlanta Braves$15.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
0xf958…db13Atlanta Braves$11.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
0x7542…7a20Atlanta Braves$10.1K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.