Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Level UP - Game 4 Winner

● quote 60 min ago
SportsCloses: 15 minutesLiquidity: $43.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $85.7KEvent: Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Level UP (BO5) - Asgard Championship Playoffs
22.5¢
YES
77.5¢
NO
13.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution20Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%
24h sample:43 trades$14.4K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 66 min agoofficial metadata 62 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLevel UP (NO)$2.5K@ 55¢·0x9166…b479

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.7K
6h
+$1.3K
tracked
$14.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
13.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 60 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 66 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 62 minutes old.
  • Spread is 13.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between Spirit Academy and Level UP in the Asgard Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 11 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win Game 4 against Level UP. This market will resolve to "Level UP" if Level UP win Game 4 against Spirit Academy. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9166…b4792 linked markets · $16.2K gross
0x4572…83ff2 linked markets · $4.4K gross
0xc3e5…519d2 linked markets · $1.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $29$76 · 53s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3.7K
6h+$1.3K
24h+$1.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h41.4¢▼ below by 18.9pp
VWAP 7d41.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$39
75¢
$1
70¢
$0
65¢
$404
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$49
45¢
$4.1K
40¢
$6.3K
35¢
$6
30¢
$3.3K
25¢
$26
20¢
← now
$106
15¢
$128
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.