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Todi: Daniel Galan vs Federico Agustin Gomez

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $201.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $60.9KEvent: Todi: Daniel Galan vs Federico Agustin Gomez
39.5¢
YES
60.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$25.6K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFederico Agustin Gomez (NO)$5.5K@ 55¢·0xe92d…0939

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$7
tracked
$25.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$596 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Galan and Federico Agustin Gomez in the Todi, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Galan' if Daniel Galan advances against Federico Agustin Gomez. This market will resolve to 'Federico Agustin Gomez' if Federico Agustin Gomez advances against Daniel Galan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.9K
6h−$7
24h−$19.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h43.7¢▼ below by 4.2pp
VWAP 7d43.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$11.8K
40¢
$12.3K
35¢
← now
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe92d…0939Federico Agustin Gomez$16.5K
BUY VWAP 55.2¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.