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Hamburg: Andrej Nedic vs Carlos Taberner

● quote 84 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $193.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $363.4KEvent: Hamburg: Andrej Nedic vs Carlos Taberner
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:137 trades$123.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 94 min agoofficial metadata 75 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.8K·4 wallets·$15.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrej Nedic (YES)$40.0K@ 87¢·Marcoli

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$55
6h
+$54.5K
tracked
$123.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$5.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 84 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 94 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 75 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Andrej Nedic and Carlos Taberner in the Hamburg, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrej Nedic' if Andrej Nedic advances against Carlos Taberner. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Taberner' if Carlos Taberner advances against Andrej Nedic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Andrej Nedic@ 88.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -30.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.7K → $18.8K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$55
6h+$54.5K
24h+$56.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h58.9¢▼ below by 57.9pp
VWAP 7d58.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$48.0K
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
$8.8K
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$13.9K
60¢
$6.5K
55¢
$4.3K
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$4.9K
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$1.7K
30¢
$70
25¢
$286
20¢
$594
15¢
$222
10¢
$0
5¢
$5.7K
0¢
← now
$20.3K

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAndrej Nedic (YES)$40.0K@ 86.7¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MarcoliAndrej Nedic$40.0K
BUY VWAP 86.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.