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Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5

Sports→Settlement: OverLiquidity: $143.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $255.5KEvent: Lions vs. Bills
100.0¢
Over payout
0.0¢
Under payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:80 trades$101.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 370 min agoofficial metadata 301 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $38.3K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$46.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$25.0K@ 50¢·wan123

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Over. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Lions and Bills combine to score 55 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 55, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Lions and Bills combine to score 55 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 55, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05635 linked markets · $515.9K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $273.6K gross
TheMonaLisaCode4 linked markets · $113.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 50.0¢10h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 50.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Under UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $538 · 64s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $17.7K
24hUnder · $13.5K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h52.6¢▲ above by 47.4pp
VWAP 7d52.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.4K
90¢
$1.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$25
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$22
60¢
$80
55¢
$1.0K
50¢
$121.6K
45¢
$2
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$10.0K@ 52.5¢0x17c4…2471🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYUnder$25.0K@ 50.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYUnder$15.7K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYOver$10.9K@ 53.0¢
DaBossHogg0x6157…9fb4
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYOver$10.1K@ 51.0¢
DaBossHogg0x6157…9fb4
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wan123Under$25.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
DaBossHoggOver$20.9K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Under$15.7K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0x17c4…2471Over$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.