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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $476.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $378.2KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:79 trades$140.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere (YES)$22.3K@ 69¢·0x9db8…2eff

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$21.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.2K
6h
+$7.6K
tracked
$140.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$4.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -30.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Team Heretics in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 17 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Heretics. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9db8…2eff3 linked markets · $40.7K gross
Sisyphus.3 linked markets · $40.3K gross
five51202 linked markets · $37.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Heretics@ 31.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 71.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$21.2K
6h+$7.6K
24h+$7.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h77.7¢▲ above by 22.3pp
VWAP 7d77.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$27.1K
90¢
$38
85¢
$18.1K
80¢
$26
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$46.1K
65¢
$47.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Heretics (NO)$18.2K@ 31.4¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere (YES)$22.3K@ 69.0¢0x9db8…2eff🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9db8…2effNatus Vincere$22.3K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
Zzzz87Team Heretics$18.3K
BUY VWAP 31.4¢·2 fills
0x8a86…4998Team Heretics$16.6K
BUY VWAP 21.5¢·3 fills
0x48fe…b2b6Natus Vincere$10.7K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·3 fills
0xdee3…6fe5Natus Vincere$10.3K
BUY VWAP 87.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.