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Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)

● quote 31s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $174.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $108.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:52 trades$14.3K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 42s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNakashima (NO)$3.6K@ 58¢·0x0353…c2ff

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$604
6h
+$508
tracked
$14.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Brandon Nakashima in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins by 2 or more sets than Brandon Nakashima, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Nakashima." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0353…c2ff2 linked markets · $13.6K gross
Supremeleader752 linked markets · $3.8K gross
0x88b5…a0412 linked markets · $3.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 8.5pp · near-book depth $3 → $68 · 53s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$604
6h+$508
24h−$4.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h35.6¢▼ below by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d35.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$26
65¢
$0
60¢
$1
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
$9.6K
35¢
$35
30¢
$2
25¢
$36
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.5K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima
0.1¢$2.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.