Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Kyrian Jacquet

● quote 105 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $408.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $219.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Kyrian Jacquet
19.5¢
YES
80.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$75.9K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 105 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNicolai Budkov Kjaer (YES)$28.0K@ 34¢·0xfc64…e71d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.6K
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$75.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$2.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 105 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 120 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 105 minutes old.
  • Executable SELL price moved 16.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Kyrian Jacquet in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Kyrian Jacquet. This market will resolve to 'Kyrian Jacquet' if Kyrian Jacquet advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Nicolai Budkov Kjaer@ 35.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer@ 40.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $116.6K$44.8K · 87s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3.6K
6h$3.4K
24h$8.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h37.0¢▼ below by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d37.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$11.2K
40¢
$2.6K
35¢
$30.2K
30¢
$29.6K
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$488
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNicolai Budkov Kjaer (YES)$28.0K@ 34.0¢0xfc64…e71d🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYNicolai Budkov Kjaer (YES)$10.0K@ 46.8¢0xfc64…e71d🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYNicolai Budkov Kjaer (YES)$10.0K@ 38.0¢0xfc64…e71d🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYNicolai Budkov Kjaer (YES)$10.0K@ 36.1¢0xfc64…e71d🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xfc64…e71dNicolai Budkov Kjaer$32.6K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.