Cincinnati Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jack Draper

● quote 34 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $297.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $433.2KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jack Draper
49.5¢
YES
50.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection63Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$206.5K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 38 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $14.6K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$22.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartin Landaluce (YES)$99.5K@ 52¢·highnetworth

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$128.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$128.8K
6h
+$99.8K
tracked
$206.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$14.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 34 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 38 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Landaluce and Jack Draper in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Jack Draper. This market will resolve to 'Jack Draper' if Jack Draper advances against Martin Landaluce. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Martin Landaluce@ 57.0¢40m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Martin Landaluce40m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Landaluce@ 57.0¢54m ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $18.1K$48.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$128.8K
6h+$99.8K
24h+$99.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h47.8¢▲ above by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d47.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$125
55¢
$4.7K
50¢
$151.2K
45¢
← now
$4.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$23.6K
25¢
$19.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMartin Landaluce (YES)$99.5K@ 52.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce (YES)$14.9K@ 53.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce (YES)$12.4K@ 54.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJack Draper (NO)$10.2K@ 70.0¢
sbimbg0xf519…906b
🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

highnetworthMartin Landaluce$135.0K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·5 fills
sbimbgJack Draper$10.2K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.