Cincinnati Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Gael Monfils

● quote 146 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $514.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $366.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Gael Monfils
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$110.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 155 min agoofficial metadata 149 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$8.1K·5 wallets·$17.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRinky Hijikata (YES)$11.8K@ 100¢·0x2978…b511

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$194
6h
−$1.6K
tracked
$110.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$8.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 146 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 155 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 149 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rinky Hijikata and Gael Monfils in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Gael Monfils. This market will resolve to 'Gael Monfils' if Gael Monfils advances against Rinky Hijikata. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rinky Hijikata@ 43.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $113.2K$1.4K · 39s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$194
6h$1.6K
24h$2.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h66.5¢▲ above by 33.4pp
VWAP 7d66.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.3K
90¢
$19.8K
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$1.4K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$568
55¢
$19.8K
50¢
$7.2K
45¢
$11
40¢
$22.5K
35¢
$248
30¢
$30
25¢
$4.1K
20¢
$7.4K
15¢
$868
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRinky Hijikata (YES)$11.8K@ 99.9¢0x2978…b511🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYRinky Hijikata (YES)$10.0K@ 42.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Rinky Hijikata$19.0K
BUY VWAP 42.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.