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Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson

● quote 1356 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $327.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.0KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:80 trades$174.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1378 min agoofficial metadata 1360 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $47.2K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$49.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAshlyn Krueger (YES)$32.2K@ 48¢·0x2a0d…a75f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$49.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$49.4K
6h
−$24.4K
tracked
$174.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$47.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1356 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1378 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1360 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ashlyn Krueger and Lois Boisson in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ashlyn Krueger' if Ashlyn Krueger advances against Lois Boisson. This market will resolve to 'Lois Boisson' if Lois Boisson advances against Ashlyn Krueger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ashlyn Krueger@ 44.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $91.3K → $136.6K · 34s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$49.4K
6h−$24.4K
24h−$24.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h28.2¢▼ below by 28.1pp
VWAP 7d28.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
$53.9K
40¢
$13.8K
35¢
$24.7K
30¢
$12.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$4.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
← now
$56.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLois Boisson (NO)$11.3K@ 97.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYLois Boisson (NO)$11.3K@ 97.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger (YES)$32.2K@ 48.4¢0x2a0d…a75f🐋—1 day ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger (YES)$15.0K@ 49.0¢0x2a0d…a75f🐋—1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2a0d…a75fAshlyn Krueger$47.2K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·2 fills
swisstonyLois Boisson$42.6K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·6 fills
0xde9f…d43cLois Boisson$10.2K
BUY VWAP 58.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.