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Cincinnati Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Magdalena Frech

● quote 93 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $306.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $163.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Magdalena Frech
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets14Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$67.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $689·2 wallets·$3.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagdalena Frech (NO)$23.7K@ 95¢·0b1fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.6K
6h
−$37.6K
tracked
$67.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$689 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 93 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Antonia Ruzic and Magdalena Frech in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Antonia Ruzic' if Antonia Ruzic advances against Magdalena Frech. This market will resolve to 'Magdalena Frech' if Magdalena Frech advances against Antonia Ruzic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Magdalena Frech@ 99.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.4pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.7pp · near-book depth $22.2K → $9.3K · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$6.6K
6h−$37.6K
24h−$40.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h13.1¢▼ below by 12.1pp
VWAP 7d13.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$11.9K
30¢
$1.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$3.3K
10¢
$9.0K
5¢
$25.3K
0¢
← now
$16.7K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMagdalena Frech (NO)$10.0K@ 95.2¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMagdalena Frech (NO)$23.7K@ 95.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feMagdalena Frech$23.7K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
0x0c4c…d70dMagdalena Frech$10.0K
BUY VWAP 95.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.