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Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)

● quote 68 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $11.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $171Event: Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic
49.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:9 trades$28.3K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 226 min agoofficial metadata 66 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAguilar (NO)$5.0K@ 77¢·0x2f44…93c2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$28.3K
tracked
$28.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -76.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 68 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 226 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 66 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Cilic" if Marin Cilic wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Merida Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Aguilar." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $8.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aguilar@ 76.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$28.3K
24h−$28.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.0¢
VWAP 24h22.8¢▲ above by 26.2pp
VWAP 7d22.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$28.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2f44…93c2Aguilar$20.0K
BUY VWAP 76.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.