Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)

● quote 128 min ago
SportsCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $63.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
61.5¢
YES
38.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection64Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$31.6K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 163 min agoofficial metadata 128 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (YES)$18.3K@ 61¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$20.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$20.1K
6h
+$24.8K
tracked
$31.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$18.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 128 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 163 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 128 minutes old.
  • Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Luminosity and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Luminosity in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Luminosity". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 61.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$20.1K
6h+$24.8K
24h+$28.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h60.9¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d60.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$31.6K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSpirit (YES)$18.3K@ 61.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaSpirit$18.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.