Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 87 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $428.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.9KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$62.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$28.8K@ 45¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$835
6h
+$29.3K
tracked
$62.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$390 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +58.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 87 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 101 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 18 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Toronto Blue Jays4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 42.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +25.0pp1h CONFIRMED +52.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $8.7K$764 · 64s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$835
6h+$29.3K
24h+$15.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▲ above by 46.0pp
VWAP 7d53.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.9K
90¢
$515
85¢
$933
80¢
$3.8K
75¢
$0
70¢
$871
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$45.0K
40¢
$4.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$28.8K@ 45.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
2.9¢$651.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
72.5¢$572.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
100.0¢$437.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$426.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
62.5¢$409.3Kpriority74Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
24.5¢$368.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
7.5¢$288.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafToronto Blue Jays$28.8K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0xe954…1ef1Tampa Bay Rays$11.7K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.