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Will England win?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $22.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.2KEvent: Test Series England vs Pakistan: England vs Pakistan
95.0¢
YES
5.0¢
NO
2.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:3 trades$27.4K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 128 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$27.4K@ 97¢·0x3328…e6b8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$27.4K
tracked
$27.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.6pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 128 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between England and Pakistan scheduled for August 19 2026 in Test Series England vs Pakistan. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 97.7¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.2pp1h INVALIDATED -3.1pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$27.4K
24h+$27.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.0¢
VWAP 24h97.0¢▼ below by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d95.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$27.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$27.4K@ 97.0¢0x3328…e6b8🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3328…e6b8Yes$27.4K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.