Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya

● quote 117 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $48.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $184.7KEvent: Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya
99.9¢
YES
0.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$45.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 208 min agoofficial metadata 120 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $7.4K·2 wallets·$7.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMert Alkaya (NO)$10.3K@ 51¢·0x8a3a…eb9a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$33.2K
tracked
$45.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$7.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 117 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 208 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 120 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Khumoun Sultanov and Mert Alkaya in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Khumoun Sultanov' if Khumoun Sultanov advances against Mert Alkaya. This market will resolve to 'Mert Alkaya' if Mert Alkaya advances against Khumoun Sultanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $19.0K$2.9K · 21s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$33.2K
24h$33.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▲ above by 31.9pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$8.6K
90¢
$2.9K
85¢
$28
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$7.8K
70¢
$165
65¢
$254
60¢
$281
55¢
$6
50¢
$12.3K
45¢
$11.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMert Alkaya (NO)$10.3K@ 51.0¢0x8a3a…eb9a🐋about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8a3a…eb9aMert Alkaya$10.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.