Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 84 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 38 minutesLiquidity: $878.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.8MEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:722 trades$622.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 95 min agoofficial metadata 89 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$56.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$57.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$40.0K@ 57¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$116.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$116.3K
6h
+$17.8K
tracked
$622.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$56.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +52.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 84 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 95 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 89 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 16:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between TEAM VISION and Team Falcons in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against TEAM VISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $220.2K gross
0xde24…4ded2 linked markets · $17.1K gross
0xf3ce…a57a3 linked markets · $16.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 34.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +40.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY TEAM VISION@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY TEAM VISION@ 62.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -33.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $801$1.0K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$116.3K
6h+$17.8K
24h+$24.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h66.9¢▲ above by 33.1pp
VWAP 7d66.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$764
80¢
$9.2K
75¢
$11.4K
70¢
$14.5K
65¢
$18.5K
60¢
$149.7K
55¢
$113.2K
50¢
$28.4K
45¢
$22.1K
40¢
$22.4K
35¢
$7.7K
30¢
$14.0K
25¢
$11.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$15.2K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$31.8K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$15.0K@ 59.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$40.0K@ 57.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30TEAM VISION$87.2K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·11 fills
0x2c33…0563TEAM VISION$57.0K
BUY VWAP 61.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.