Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 46 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 29 minutesLiquidity: $620.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:448 trades$333.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Resilience (NO)$20.0K@ 41¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$46.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$46.2K
6h
−$71.4K
tracked
$333.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$6.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: -40.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 52 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 49 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 15:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between LGD Gaming and Team Resilience in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Team Resilience. This market will resolve to "Team Resilience" if Team Resilience win the match against LGD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $165.5K gross
0x7993…cf5a2 linked markets · $30.9K gross
gxxyy2 linked markets · $27.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Resilience@ 41.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Resilience@ 48.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp1h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Resilience@ 41.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $54$762 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$46.2K
6h$71.4K
24h$71.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h75.2¢▲ above by 24.8pp
VWAP 7d75.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$122.2K
90¢
$7.8K
85¢
$16.5K
80¢
$4.5K
75¢
$7.1K
70¢
$6.5K
65¢
$6.1K
60¢
$19.5K
55¢
$109.4K
50¢
$5.4K
45¢
$11.7K
40¢
$3.0K
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$6.7K
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$598
15¢
$64
10¢
$1.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$12.6K@ 99.9¢0xd1d9…a1b2🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$11.3K@ 99.9¢0xde24…4ded🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$15.5K@ 99.9¢0xcd36…0f01🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Resilience (NO)$20.0K@ 41.3¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYTeam Resilience (NO)$10.0K@ 41.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Resilience$52.4K
BUY VWAP 41.5¢·11 fills
0xcd36…0f01LGD Gaming$19.7K
BUY VWAP 98.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.