Astana: Jie Cui vs Aziz Dougaz

● quote 68 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $276.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $469.4KEvent: Astana: Jie Cui vs Aziz Dougaz
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$160.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 79 min agoofficial metadata 65 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJie Cui (YES)$20.0K@ 72¢·Marcoli

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$33.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$33.3K
6h
−$20.6K
tracked
$160.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$7 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 68 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 79 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 65 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-21 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jie Cui and Aziz Dougaz in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jie Cui' if Jie Cui advances against Aziz Dougaz. This market will resolve to 'Aziz Dougaz' if Aziz Dougaz advances against Jie Cui. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aziz Dougaz@ 80.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Jie Cui@ 72.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL Jie Cui@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +38.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $10$15.8K · 21s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$33.3K
6h$20.6K
24h$20.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h43.5¢▼ below by 42.5pp
VWAP 7d43.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10.3K
70¢
$33.7K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$2.6K
55¢
$1.7K
50¢
$1.9K
45¢
$3.2K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$12.0K
30¢
$62.6K
25¢
$4.6K
20¢
$3.0K
15¢
$4.4K
10¢
$2.4K
5¢
$1.3K
0¢
← now
$10.6K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAziz Dougaz (NO)$20.0K@ 66.1¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAziz Dougaz (NO)$16.5K@ 65.9¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYJie Cui (YES)$20.0K@ 71.7¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYJie Cui (YES)$10.0K@ 36.8¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MarcoliAziz Dougaz$36.5K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
MarcoliJie Cui$25.0K
BUY VWAP 70.7¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Jie Cui$10.0K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.