Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 25 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $174.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $441.7KEvent: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage
33.5¢
YES
66.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:156 trades$193.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$30.0K@ 61¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$70.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$70.3K
6h
+$74.9K
tracked
$193.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$12.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 62

Since latest accumulation: -28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Team Yandex and Team Liquid in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Yandex. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $202.6K gross
0x24be…ad1a2 linked markets · $45.9K gross
0x6a93…8e362 linked markets · $25.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Yandex@ 62.0¢34m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Yandex@ 61.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 61.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.9K$178 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$70.3K
6h+$74.9K
24h+$84.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h62.1¢▼ below by 28.6pp
VWAP 7d62.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$6.5K
80¢
$453
75¢
$6.5K
70¢
$0
65¢
$24.2K
60¢
$120.6K
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$9.0K
45¢
$6.4K
40¢
$3.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$10.0K@ 58.6¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$10.0K@ 60.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$10.0K@ 60.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$10.0K@ 61.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (YES)$30.0K@ 61.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$648.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$585.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Yandex$79.5K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·9 fills
0x2c33…0563Team Liquid$12.3K
BUY VWAP 35.9¢·2 fills
0xc69b…2076Team Yandex$12.3K
BUY VWAP 80.9¢·5 fills
0x04f6…f24aTeam Yandex$10.1K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.