Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 151 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $48.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $290.0KEvent: Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:47 trades$97.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 184 min agoofficial metadata 153 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVici Gaming (NO)$10.7K@ 75¢·0xf3ce…a57a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.5K
6h
−$53.4K
tracked
$97.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 151 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 184 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 153 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between HULIGANI and Vici Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "HULIGANI" if HULIGANI win Game 1 against Vici Gaming. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win Game 1 against HULIGANI. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $39.0K gross
0xf3ce…a57a2 linked markets · $17.6K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $12.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.3pp · near-book depth $10$10 · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12.5K
6h$53.4K
24h$53.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.4¢▲ above by 31.6pp
VWAP 7d68.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$48.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.5K
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.8K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.3K
50¢
$872
45¢
$10.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$10.7K
20¢
$11.4K
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$0
5¢
$4.5K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYVici Gaming (NO)$10.7K@ 74.7¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYVici Gaming (NO)$10.0K@ 75.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$129.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
29.5¢$112.1Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Vici Gaming$14.0K
BUY VWAP 67.3¢·3 fills
0xf3ce…a57aVici Gaming$10.7K
BUY VWAP 74.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.