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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $256.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.1KEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage
58.5¢
YES
41.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%
24h sample:16 trades$28.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora (NO)$12.5K@ 45¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.6K
6h
−$8.3K
tracked
$28.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.6K
6h−$8.3K
24h−$8.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h55.6¢▲ above by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d55.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$28.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAurora (NO)$12.5K@ 45.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8Aurora$17.6K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.