Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox

● quote 177 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $177.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $368Event: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$15.7K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 214 min agoofficial metadata 179 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$15.7K@ 58¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$15.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.7K
6h
−$15.7K
tracked
$15.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 177 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 214 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 179 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
discovery
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for August 19 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 59.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$15.7K
6h$15.7K
24h$15.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$15.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$15.7K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafBoston Red Sox$15.7K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.