Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?

● quote 95 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $32.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $217.5KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 20?

100.0¢

YES

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly47Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:21 trades$136.8K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 125 min agoofficial metadata 99 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$42.6K@ 100¢·Tttyh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$1.9K

+$38.8K

tracked

$136.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$18.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 95 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 125 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 99 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-20 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xf67e…a55c3 linked markets · $63.2K gross

0x06dc…45247 linked markets · $26.7K gross

0x81a6…b93b4 linked markets · $19.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$1.9K

6h+$38.8K

24h+$61.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current100.0¢

VWAP 24h99.9¢▲ above by 0.1pp

VWAP 7d99.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$138.0K

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