Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner

● quote 97 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $113.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $346.6KEvent: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage
23.5¢
YES
76.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection74Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:76 trades$165.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 104 min agoofficial metadata 98 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$30.0K@ 60¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$122.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$122.1K
6h
−$122.1K
tracked
$165.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 52

Since latest accumulation: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 97 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 104 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 98 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 10:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between BoomBoys and TEAM VISION in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win Game 1 against TEAM VISION. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win Game 1 against BoomBoys. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $14.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY TEAM VISION@ 60.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY TEAM VISION@ 60.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $184$123 · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$122.1K
6h$122.1K
24h$122.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.5¢
VWAP 24h39.6¢▼ below by 16.1pp
VWAP 7d39.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$121.8K
35¢
$34.8K
30¢
$7.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$12.0K@ 60.0¢0x9166…b479🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 58.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 58.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 60.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$30.0K@ 60.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 60.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 65.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage
25.0¢$94.0Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30TEAM VISION$99.0K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·15 fills
0x9166…b479TEAM VISION$12.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x6b60…edbeTEAM VISION$11.8K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.