Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

● quote 104 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $411.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $818.9KEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly48Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:262 trades$407.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$6.8K·2 wallets·$9.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNigma Galaxy (NO)$102.4K@ 100¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.8K
6h
+$255.9K
tracked
$407.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$6.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 104 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 121 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 10:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between LGD Gaming and Nigma Galaxy in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $138.7K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $100.3K gross
0xa103…1c143 linked markets · $39.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nigma Galaxy@ 76.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Nigma Galaxy4h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Nigma Galaxy4h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY LGD Gaming4h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES UP 8.5pp · near-book depth $27$2 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.8K
6h+$255.9K
24h+$255.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.2¢▼ below by 20.1pp
VWAP 7d20.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$5.3K
70¢
$7.5K
65¢
$9.7K
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$67.0K
50¢
$36.5K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$291
35¢
$3.0K
30¢
$6.4K
25¢
$4.0K
20¢
$132
15¢
$400
10¢
$436
5¢
$1.2K
0¢
← now
$258.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNigma Galaxy (NO)$54.3K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (NO)$102.4K@ 99.9¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 3 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (NO)$14.0K@ 99.9¢0xa103…1c14🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (NO)$25.0K@ 99.9¢0x3413…8ff2🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (NO)$13.3K@ 46.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$12.9K@ 55.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (NO)$10.6K@ 45.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$604.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage
0.1¢$372.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Nigma Galaxy$23.9K
BUY VWAP 45.6¢·2 fills
0xe16d…5e30Nigma Galaxy$20.0K
BUY VWAP 45.8¢·6 fills
0x6b60…edbeLGD Gaming$19.4K
BUY VWAP 55.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.