Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
NO pressure: −$81.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 77% · priority 0
Since latest deadline positioning: -64.9pp at executable prices.
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Iron Wing and Team Falcons in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win Game 1 against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Iron Wing. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.