Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5

● quote 76 min ago
SportsCloses: 22 minutesLiquidity: $349.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $248.4KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
55.5¢
YES
44.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$118.3K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 92 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$16.9K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$40.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$28.7K@ 52¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$18.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.6K
6h
+$12.4K
tracked
$118.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$16.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 76 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 92 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.
  • Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 22:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 14 at 6:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$18.6K
6h+$12.4K
24h+$42.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.5¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▲ above by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d53.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$35.2K
50¢
$83.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$17.9K@ 54.5¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$17.9K@ 55.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder (NO)$10.1K@ 47.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$28.7K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: GIANTX vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
0.1¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
100.0¢$801.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$613.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$424.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MIBR (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
41.5¢$402.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$389.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$35.8K
BUY VWAP 54.8¢·2 fills
SDTradingOver$28.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dUnder$11.2K
BUY VWAP 46.2¢·6 fills
BUY VWAP 47.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.