Cincinnati Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Alina Charaeva

● quote 61 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $488.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $292.8KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Alina Charaeva
97.9¢
YES
2.1¢
NO
1.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets86Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority81Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$132.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 64 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$29.8K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$34.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNikola Bartunkova (YES)$19.0K@ 64¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$71.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$71.6K
6h
+$71.1K
tracked
$132.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$29.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 86% · priority 81

Since latest confirmed build: +32.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 61 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 67 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 64 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikola Bartunkova and Alina Charaeva in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Nikola Bartunkova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Nikola Bartunkova2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Nikola Bartunkova2h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nikola Bartunkova@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nikola Bartunkova@ 61.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.3K$8.4K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$71.6K
6h+$71.1K
24h+$72.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.9¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▲ above by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$20.9K
90¢
$35.8K
85¢
$12
80¢
$2.5K
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$9.0K
65¢
$9.4K
60¢
$34.2K
55¢
$3.9K
50¢
$4.9K
45¢
$4.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$28
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$3.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNikola Bartunkova (YES)$10.0K@ 94.0¢0x492b…45ee🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova (YES)$17.1K@ 95.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova (YES)$13.4K@ 94.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova (YES)$19.0K@ 63.8¢0xe907…cff6🐋about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyNikola Bartunkova$31.0K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·6 fills
0xe907…cff6Nikola Bartunkova$19.0K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·1 fill
0x492b…45eeNikola Bartunkova$13.9K
BUY VWAP 94.8¢·3 fills
0xf377…4159Nikola Bartunkova$13.6K
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.