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Cincinnati Open: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini

● quote 144 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $295.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $540.5KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini
4.3¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority35Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$192.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 150 min agoofficial metadata 142 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $5.0K·3 wallets·$29.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTitouan Droguet (YES)$19.9K@ 68¢·0x0353…c2ff

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$15.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.4K
6h
−$4.7K
tracked
$192.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$5.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 35

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 144 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 150 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 142 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Titouan Droguet and Matteo Berrettini in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Titouan Droguet' if Titouan Droguet advances against Matteo Berrettini. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Titouan Droguet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 3.7pp · near-book depth $100.1K → $123 · 23s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$15.4K
6h−$4.7K
24h+$1.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.3¢
VWAP 24h27.6¢▼ below by 23.3pp
VWAP 7d27.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$9.3K
70¢
$780
65¢
$19.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$4
50¢
$18.2K
45¢
$19.7K
40¢
$13.3K
35¢
$8.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$12.0K
5¢
$51.9K
0¢
← now
$39.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMatteo Berrettini (NO)$10.6K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLTitouan Droguet (YES)$19.9K@ 68.0¢0x0353…c2ff🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyMatteo Berrettini$17.3K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·9 fills
0x492b…45eeMatteo Berrettini$14.0K
BUY VWAP 85.5¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.