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Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $267.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $101.7KEvent: FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club - More Markets
58.5¢
FC Barcelona
41.5¢
Athletic Club
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:13 trades$36.0K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAthletic Club$20.6K@ 41¢·predictionlegend

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$60
6h
−$8.4K
tracked
$36.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Athletic Club".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for August 27 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Athletic Club". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Athletic Club@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Barcelona; negative values favor Athletic Club. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFC Barcelona · $60
6hAthletic Club · $8.4K
24hAthletic Club · $5.3K

FC Barcelona price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Barcelona price. Athletic Club fills are converted to the complementary FC Barcelona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d58.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Barcelona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$5.9K
55¢
← now
$27.9K
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAthletic Club$20.6K@ 41.3¢
predictionlegend0x3eb0…6a68
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

predictionlegendAthletic Club$20.6K
BUY VWAP 41.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.