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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $122.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $212.0KEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
22.5¢
YES
77.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:65 trades$74.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$10.0K@ 52¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$11.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.5K
6h
−$53.1K
tracked
$74.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 26.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Team Liquid and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Team Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $99.0K gross
0xf3ef…ca6b2 linked markets · $9.5K gross
0xce7d…898e2 linked markets · $3.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Team Spirit45m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Team Spirit45m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $22 → $1.0K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$11.5K
6h−$53.1K
24h−$53.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h46.6¢▼ below by 24.1pp
VWAP 7d46.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.6K
45¢
$66.3K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$27
20¢
← now
$1.2K
15¢
$5
10¢
$1.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$10.0K@ 52.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$10.0K@ 51.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$10.0K@ 53.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$504.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Spirit$47.0K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.