Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner

● quote 50 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $142.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $263.2KEvent: Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:69 trades$106.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYXtreme Gaming (YES)$10.0K@ 61¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$36.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$36.6K
6h
+$14.2K
tracked
$106.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 50 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 14:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Xtreme Gaming and HULIGANI in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 2 against HULIGANI. This market will resolve to "HULIGANI" if HULIGANI win Game 2 against Xtreme Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $110.3K gross
gxxyy2 linked markets · $11.6K gross
0x5bc6…eff42 linked markets · $10.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $145$186 · 25s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$36.6K
6h+$14.2K
24h+$14.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h82.5¢▲ above by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d82.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$46.2K
90¢
$20
85¢
$8.9K
80¢
$3.4K
75¢
$7.0K
70¢
$565
65¢
$12.8K
60¢
$27.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYXtreme Gaming (YES)$10.0K@ 60.7¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢$64.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Xtreme Gaming$25.0K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.