Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 1 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $344.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $491.7KEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
62.5¢
YES
37.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$199.4K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$30.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$30.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.3K@ 39¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$20.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.1K
6h
−$29.8K
tracked
$199.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$30.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 61

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between TEAM VISION and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against TEAM VISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 38.0¢12m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Spirit@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 62.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY TEAM VISION@ 62.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $31.8K$4.9K · 57s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$20.1K
6h$29.8K
24h$24.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h61.1¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d61.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$198.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$13.9K@ 61.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋31 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.3K@ 38.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋31 minutes ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$15.0K@ 35.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋34 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$19.2K@ 40.0¢0x1896…a7d6🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$16.6K@ 60.0¢
S-Works0xee00…cea1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$20.3K@ 40.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.0K@ 40.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTeam Spirit$86.0K
BUY VWAP 39.5¢·4 fills
0x1896…a7d6Team Spirit$19.2K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563TEAM VISION$17.1K
BUY VWAP 61.2¢·2 fills
S-WorksTEAM VISION$16.6K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
iDARKenjoyerTEAM VISION$13.3K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.