Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 1379 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $570.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $670.7KEvent: Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage
0.4¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:7 trades$25.0K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1423 min agoofficial metadata 1365 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Yandex (NO)$30.7K@ 100¢·0x8002…8b6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$158
6h
+$23.0K
tracked
$25.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1379 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1423 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1365 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Team Resilience and Team Yandex in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Resilience" if Team Resilience win the match against Team Yandex. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Team Resilience. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8002…8b6c2 linked markets · $68.7K gross
0x6b60…edbe2 linked markets · $52.8K gross
0x66b1…6b9d3 linked markets · $34.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Team Yandex1d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Team Yandex1d ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Yandex@ 79.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.1pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 79.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$158
6h+$23.0K
24h+$2.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h14.3¢▼ below by 13.9pp
VWAP 7d14.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$28.2K
40¢
$11.9K
35¢
$5.1K
30¢
$156
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$67.7K
15¢
$19.1K
10¢
$19.8K
5¢
$6.5K
0¢
← now
$131.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Yandex (NO)$18.0K@ 99.9¢0xcd66…664f🐋1 day ago
SELLTeam Yandex (NO)$30.7K@ 99.9¢0x8002…8b6c🐋1 day ago
SELLTeam Yandex (NO)$13.3K@ 78.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋1 day ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$17.6K@ 78.1¢0x6b60…edbe🐋1 day ago
BUYTeam Resilience (YES)$15.5K@ 48.8¢0xb727…2a9d🐋1 day ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$17.0K@ 87.5¢0x51c7…98aa🐋1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x6b60…edbeTeam Yandex$27.9K
BUY VWAP 69.7¢·4 fills
0xb727…2a9dTeam Resilience$24.3K
BUY VWAP 47.7¢·2 fills
0x51c7…98aaTeam Yandex$17.0K
BUY VWAP 87.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.