Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)

● quote 281 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 41 minutesLiquidity: $762Official 24h Vol: $68.1KEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage
28.5¢
YES
71.5¢
NO
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection49Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution38Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$32.0K trackedsource coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 305 min agoofficial metadata 285 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$9.3K@ 64¢·0xa3c5…6930

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$15.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.5K
6h
+$20.2K
tracked
$32.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 281 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 305 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 285 minutes old.
  • Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Team Falcons and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more games than GamerLegion in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "GamerLegion". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $5$11 · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$15.5K
6h+$20.2K
24h+$21.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.5¢
VWAP 24h63.8¢▼ below by 35.3pp
VWAP 7d63.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$32.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage
74.5¢$74.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa3c5…6930Team Falcons$14.8K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.