Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner

● quote 82 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $88.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $261.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
96.0¢
YES
4.0¢
NO
1.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:59 trades$101.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 88 min agoofficial metadata 86 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPARIVISION (NO)$13.6K@ 30¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$12.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.9K
6h
+$16.8K
tracked
$101.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$13.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.5¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 52

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 82 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 88 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 86 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 19:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between MOUZ and PARIVISION in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 2 against PARIVISION. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win Map 2 against MOUZ. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $88.8K gross
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $22.3K gross
0x73e3…1be92 linked markets · $16.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $22.1K$5.2K · 54s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$12.9K
6h+$16.8K
24h+$16.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.0¢
VWAP 24h75.7¢▲ above by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d75.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$16.4K
85¢
$356
80¢
$14.9K
75¢
$8.3K
70¢
$32.4K
65¢
$29.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMOUZ (YES)$11.9K@ 91.0¢0xcd66…664f🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYPARIVISION (NO)$13.6K@ 30.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563PARIVISION$13.6K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·1 fill
0x0063…2dd2MOUZ$12.7K
BUY VWAP 81.1¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.