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Games Total: O/U 2.5

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $87.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.8KEvent: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
24.0¢
YES
76.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$22.4K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$22.0K@ 65¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$63
tracked
$22.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$22.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Gen.G and KT Rolster in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if Gen.G and KT Rolster play 3 or more games in this series. If fewer than 3 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $28.4K gross
StasPanda2 linked markets · $26.5K gross
0xe907…cff63 linked markets · $16.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 65.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5
6h−$63
24h−$22.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.0¢
VWAP 24h35.2¢▼ below by 11.2pp
VWAP 7d35.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$22.3K
30¢
$8
25¢
$6
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$22.0K@ 64.8¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaUnder$22.0K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.