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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

Sports→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $37.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $255.3KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $22.8K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$32.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$42.5K@ 53¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-15 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets, scheduled for August 15 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Washington Nationals and New York Mets combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $118.2K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $84.7K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $41.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Under6d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 48.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h−$14.3K
24h−$19.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h52.6¢▲ above by 47.4pp
VWAP 7d52.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$22
80¢
$1
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$109
60¢
$0
55¢
$114
50¢
$111.4K
45¢
$14
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$16
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$31.2K@ 47.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—6 days ago
BUYUnder (NO)$10.5K@ 47.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋—6 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$42.5K@ 53.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$42.5K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafUnder$31.2K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardUnder$13.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·3 fills
dv-pmUnder$10.5K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.