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Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

● quote 38 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $510.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $553.5KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:126 trades$247.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 42 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $19.0K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$19.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$20.7K@ 60¢·highnetworth

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$40.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$40.2K
6h
−$100.8K
tracked
$247.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$19.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -38.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 38 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 42 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Katerina Siniakova and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Bouzas Maneiro' if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advances against Katerina Siniakova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro@ 39.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +31.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro@ 45.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $178.1K → $15.8K · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$40.2K
6h−$100.8K
24h−$100.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▲ above by 41.6pp
VWAP 7d58.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$35.6K
90¢
$17.8K
85¢
$2.1K
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$8.8K
60¢
$42.5K
55¢
$26.6K
50¢
$16.1K
45¢
$7.3K
40¢
$52.7K
35¢
$6.7K
30¢
$3.7K
25¢
$26.9K
20¢
$343
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLKaterina Siniakova (YES)$10.4K@ 99.9¢0xf9d6…730a🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLKaterina Siniakova (YES)$11.1K@ 99.0¢0x492b…45ee🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$19.0K@ 39.8¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$17.6K@ 71.5¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$12.0K@ 48.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$13.0K@ 44.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$20.7K@ 60.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJessica Bouzas Maneiro (NO)$12.8K@ 60.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

highnetworthJessica Bouzas Maneiro$60.9K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·6 fills
0x5268…135dJessica Bouzas Maneiro$20.4K
BUY VWAP 40.3¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Jessica Bouzas Maneiro$19.0K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·1 fill
0x492b…45eeKaterina Siniakova$14.1K
BUY VWAP 93.9¢·5 fills
0x5f65…2036Jessica Bouzas Maneiro$12.0K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dKaterina Siniakova$10.4K
BUY VWAP 61.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.