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Cincinnati Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Xiyu Wang

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $457.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.2KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Xiyu Wang
10.5¢
YES
89.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$113.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $14.4K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$38.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYXiyu Wang (NO)$21.1K@ 96¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$34.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.6K
6h
−$22.6K
tracked
$113.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$14.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 61

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Leylah Fernandez and Xiyu Wang in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Xiyu Wang. This market will resolve to 'Xiyu Wang' if Xiyu Wang advances against Leylah Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Xiyu Wang@ 69.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $16.6K → $8.9K · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$34.6K
6h−$22.6K
24h−$19.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.5¢
VWAP 24h32.9¢▼ below by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d32.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$8.3K
75¢
$5.3K
70¢
$2.3K
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$2.4K
55¢
$13.5K
50¢
$821
45¢
$2.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.9K
30¢
$13
25¢
$19.2K
20¢
$7.8K
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$16.8K
5¢
$6.7K
0¢
$21.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYXiyu Wang (NO)$21.1K@ 96.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—10 minutes ago
BUYXiyu Wang (NO)$19.0K@ 71.1¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—27 minutes ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampXiyu Wang$21.1K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·1 fill
0x9e3e…f882Xiyu Wang$19.0K
BUY VWAP 71.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.