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Cincinnati Open: Tereza Valentova vs Elina Svitolina

● quote 107 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $459.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $308.4KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Tereza Valentova vs Elina Svitolina
41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$148.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 65%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 114 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $26.5K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$59.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$25.0K@ 75¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$17.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.8K
6h
−$106.4K
tracked
$148.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$26.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 81% · priority 57

Since latest large flow: -19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 107 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tereza Valentova and Elina Svitolina in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tereza Valentova' if Tereza Valentova advances against Elina Svitolina. This market will resolve to 'Elina Svitolina' if Elina Svitolina advances against Tereza Valentova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Elina Svitolina@ 79.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Elina Svitolina@ 77.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Elina Svitolina@ 77.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Elina Svitolina@ 74.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $3.4K → $50.8K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$17.8K
6h−$106.4K
24h−$106.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h27.8¢▲ above by 13.7pp
VWAP 7d27.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$4.5K
85¢
$2.9K
80¢
$2.3K
75¢
$24.5K
70¢
$12.9K
65¢
$13.8K
60¢
$17.1K
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$19.0K
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
← now
$9.7K
35¢
$19.5K
30¢
$26.3K
25¢
$26.5K
20¢
$69.5K
15¢
$32.0K
10¢
$123.3K
5¢
$40.9K
0¢
$104.0K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$11.5K@ 99.4¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$26.9K@ 99.3¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$11.3K@ 98.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$59.4K@ 89.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$17.1K@ 89.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—29 minutes ago
SELLElina Svitolina (NO)$26.5K@ 88.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—30 minutes ago
SELLElina Svitolina (NO)$12.1K@ 83.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$10.7K@ 67.6¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYTereza Valentova (YES)$12.6K@ 77.9¢0x8002…8b6c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$10.5K@ 48.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLElina Svitolina (NO)$13.0K@ 65.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$13.2K@ 78.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$10.7K@ 78.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$18.1K@ 78.0¢0x8002…8b6c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$19.1K@ 77.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (NO)$25.0K@ 74.9¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyElina Svitolina$79.9K
BUY VWAP 73.9¢·10 fills
hd777Elina Svitolina$38.4K
BUY VWAP 99.4¢·2 fills
AV23IUaElina Svitolina$35.5K
BUY VWAP 64.2¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cElina Svitolina$23.9K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·2 fills
backbackElina Svitolina$21.6K
BUY VWAP 99.5¢·3 fills
tennischampElina Svitolina$19.1K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
0x8002…8b6cElina Svitolina$18.1K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Elina Svitolina$17.1K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dElina Svitolina$15.5K
BUY VWAP 89.6¢·6 fills
jtwyslljyElina Svitolina$13.1K
BUY VWAP 34.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.