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Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Liudmila Samsonova

● quote 165 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $462.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $466.3KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Liudmila Samsonova
98.0¢
YES
2.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:159 trades$203.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 169 min agoofficial metadata 165 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.8K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$23.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCoco Gauff (YES)$23.7K@ 73¢·0x0353…c2ff

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$8.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.5K
6h
+$15.8K
tracked
$203.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$10.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 86% · priority 55

Since latest confirmed build: +52.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 165 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 169 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 165 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Liudmila Samsonova in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Liudmila Samsonova. This market will resolve to 'Liudmila Samsonova' if Liudmila Samsonova advances against Coco Gauff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Coco Gauff@ 47.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Coco Gauff@ 45.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $9.4K → $2.1K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$8.5K
6h+$15.8K
24h+$18.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.0¢
VWAP 24h66.1¢▲ above by 31.9pp
VWAP 7d66.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$6.1K
80¢
$342
75¢
$37.1K
70¢
$28.9K
65¢
$6.1K
60¢
$25.0K
55¢
$3.1K
50¢
$21.2K
45¢
$42.6K
40¢
$9.3K
35¢
$47
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCoco Gauff (YES)$19.2K@ 96.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCoco Gauff (YES)$11.3K@ 79.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLCoco Gauff (YES)$23.7K@ 73.0¢0x0353…c2ff🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLiudmila Samsonova (NO)$20.0K@ 50.4¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLiudmila Samsonova (NO)$10.6K@ 48.0¢0x6129…0807🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCoco Gauff (YES)$15.8K@ 63.0¢0x0353…c2ff🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaLiudmila Samsonova$20.0K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·1 fill
hd777Coco Gauff$19.2K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·1 fill
0x0353…c2ffCoco Gauff$19.1K
BUY VWAP 58.9¢·3 fills
0xde9f…d43cCoco Gauff$12.8K
BUY VWAP 77.9¢·2 fills
tennischampCoco Gauff$11.3K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
0x6129…0807Liudmila Samsonova$10.6K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.