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Cincinnati Open: Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria

● quote 167 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $472.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $532.3KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:154 trades$182.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 172 min agoofficial metadata 167 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$27.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton (YES)$20.0K@ 64¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$7.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.6K
6h
+$23.7K
tracked
$182.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$15.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -59.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 167 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 172 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 167 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Jaime Faria in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Jaime Faria. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Ben Shelton@ 60.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Ben Shelton@ 52.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $6.7K → $35.3K · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$7.6K
6h+$23.7K
24h+$28.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▼ below by 49.6pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$26.1K
75¢
$3.1K
70¢
$9.0K
65¢
$21.2K
60¢
$54.9K
55¢
$5.6K
50¢
$6.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.5K
20¢
$0
15¢
$61
10¢
$36.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$15.8K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJaime Faria (NO)$15.0K@ 87.7¢0x1a95…3a16🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJaime Faria (NO)$11.0K@ 88.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton (YES)$12.9K@ 80.0¢0x9d73…76fa🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton (YES)$20.0K@ 63.8¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaBen Shelton$20.0K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·1 fill
0x1a95…3a16Jaime Faria$15.0K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·1 fill
0x9d73…76faBen Shelton$12.9K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
swisstonyJaime Faria$11.4K
BUY VWAP 85.1¢·2 fills
0x5268…135dBen Shelton$10.2K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.