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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $288.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $418.8KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
17.5¢
YES
82.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:155 trades$218.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $30.7K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$74.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$28.2K@ 78¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$20.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.6K
6h
−$112.9K
tracked
$218.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$30.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 56

Since latest confirmed build: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 36.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-28 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 21 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1winstreak12 linked markets · $5.7K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $3.1K gross
0x9fd4…de152 linked markets · $12 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 47.0¢19m ago
15m CONFIRMED +36.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 79.0¢49m ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Philadelphia Phillies1h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 72.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $34.9K → $32 · 12s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$20.6K
6h−$112.9K
24h−$121.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.5¢
VWAP 24h31.5¢▼ below by 14.0pp
VWAP 7d31.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$7
55¢
$13.1K
50¢
$26.3K
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$4.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$11.8K
25¢
$83.3K
20¢
$63.9K
15¢
← now
$10.5K
10¢
$11
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$10.6K@ 47.5¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$11.6K@ 78.0¢0xea6a…ab5a🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$28.2K@ 78.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$11.4K@ 71.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$14.0K@ 71.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$24.0K@ 71.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KosherlocksPhiladelphia Phillies$38.0K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·2 fills
tennischampPhiladelphia Phillies$28.2K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafPhiladelphia Phillies$20.5K
BUY VWAP 46.8¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardPhiladelphia Phillies$16.4K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·6 fills
ic4creamPhiladelphia Phillies$15.7K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·3 fills
0xea6a…ab5aPhiladelphia Phillies$11.6K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.