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Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)

● quote 10s ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $165.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.4KEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round
99.9¢
YES
18.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$34.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$10.0K@ 53¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.3K
6h
+$2.5K
tracked
$34.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and Vici Gaming in the The International Elimination Round, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more games than Vici Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vici Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x63bc…92c52 linked markets · $83.2K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $78.0K gross
gxxyy2 linked markets · $27.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 13.0pp · near-book depth $13 → $9 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$6.3K
6h+$2.5K
24h+$2.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h61.6¢▲ above by 38.3pp
VWAP 7d61.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4
60¢
$100
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$26.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$10.0K@ 53.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$357.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round
100.0¢$183.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$10.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.